Part 3

Landmark in 2016 (at this time Gold 36 million / tael, USD 22,000 / USD)
The world entered the financial crisis of 2008 (the financial world called the Black Swan) has made great impact on the countries in the world, but in Vietnam, it took place more slowly (2010-2012), after injecting money through stimulus packages in 2009-2010 about ~ 150K billion (~ 6 billion USD from foreign exchange reserves, state budget) into the economy are state-owned corporations and private real estate delegations, businesses that many units misuse and waste. Even many preferential loans are then converted into deposits and then lent at higher interest rates and so on. As a result, the economic stimulus package has side effects is causing high inflation, increasing bad debt quickly, and pushing interest rates to the peak of 17%, especially 20% (2012), paralyzing financial markets, freezing the market. real estate market from 2010-2015. After the crisis, the state had to deal with bad debts through VAMC and merged several banks worth zero dong.

This period has emerged VIN, SUN, Nova, Bitexco, FLC etc. Project momentum is still increasing as there is still access to capital. The difficulty is typical for most of the big names before, namely Hoang Anh GL, Quoc Cuong GL, Kinh Bac-Tan Tao, Sacomreal (TTC) etc., which have spread out in real estate outside the industry. Many financial leverages (borrowing) lead to loss of liquidity when the market is difficult.

Ho Chi Minh City skyline shows the unfinished Saigon One Tower on the Saigon River like a scar – the hurt of an old cycle, the consequence of the frozen real estate market. And next to that is the Bitexco building inaugurated in 2010 as a new lotus rising from the dark days of the world economic crisis. Demonstrating the duality of each period, there are always opportunities in crisis, and that is the period when heroes are born to overcome adversity.

The highlight of Vietnam’s economic development during this period was that Samsung Group started building a $ 2 billion smartphone factory (and the size will be doubled and tripled after that) in Thai Nguyen in 2014. Hiep Vietnam – South Korea Free Trade Agreement signed in 2015 paved the way for Samsung Thai Nguyen to produce smartphones for the whole world. This is a big push, positive for Vietnam’s stronger macroeconomic indicators. From the time when Samsung Thai Nguyen exported, we no longer lacked foreign exchange reserves of USD (Remember the period of 2008-2012 businesses often lack foreign currency to pay for foreign countries, buying and selling behavior. dollars outside the bank will surely be caught). And since then our economy has experienced a trade deficit from frequent trade deficit thanks to the leverage Samsung has activated a series of FDI investors expanded afterwards.

After a few years of freezing, the VAMC bad debt acquisition firm helped ease previous cycle losses. 2015 is also the year with the highest GDP recovery in the past 5 years, the highest number of newly registered enterprises before 2015.

GDP in turn of years 193 (2015) – 205 (2016) – USD 223 billion (2017).
On the stock market, the VnIndex has recovered from ~ 500-> ~ 600 (2015), ~ 600-> ~ 700 (2016), and one strong year ~ 700-> ~ 1000 (2017). With the high excitement of 2017, VnIndex soon reached a peak of ~ 1200 (April 2018) and then went down (along with the time of announcing the discontinuation of information through 3 special zones is also a signal of ending the peak of the market. real estate market, and the sideways market in 2019).

Some characteristics of this 3-year CK financial market are: signing an FTA between Vietnam and the Eurasian Economic Union 2015, expect TTP to be adopted to create a thriving 2016 – 2017 CK excitement. Stocks of VIN family always took the top position, although sometimes it was overtaken by ROS of FLC (in short-term in 2016). The total market capitalization reached US $ 70 billion in 2016 and exceeded expectations in the following year in 2017 by 73% compared to 2016 reaching ~ US $ 120 billion (accounting for more than 70% of GDP). 2017 was also the beginning of the derivatives market, the high growth of the bond market, and especially foreign capital inflows, amounting to 31 billion dollars invested in the stock market.

In the north, high-speed axes are expanded and built continuously such as Hanoi – Hai Phong, HN-Lao Cai, HN-Thai Nguyen, HN-Lang Son, HN-Quang Ninh, Van Don, etc.

In the South, completing Long Thanh – Dau Giay highway, connecting Mai Chi Tho axis, starting Metro Ben Thanh – Suoi Tien 2016, laying the premise for infrastructure fever in Q2, Q9. Next to that is the plan to make Ring 2, expand Highway 22, and countless rumors etc.

At the end of 2015, entrepreneur Tran Ba ​​Duong – THACO Automobile Group officially joined the real estate market by receiving and developing the Dai Quang Minh – SALA project (of a private businessman with many beautiful Tran land funds. Dang Khoa – Keangnam from the Czech Republic) in Q2 where the fields were not deserted many years earlier, was the kindling that ignited the fire on land fever this time. During the tumultuous real estate years, THACO’s automobile production output increased incessantly due to the demand of the whole economy for automobiles of all types at that period. THACO is particularly successful in Chu Lai open economic zone and good luck

Luckily for global recovery of the brands MAZDA, KIA and many other vehicles that THACO assembled. Dai Quang Minh SALA Building 4 main roads in Thu Thiem urban area in district 2 is the main connecting infrastructure for other investors to participate in project development in District 2.

In early 2016, VIN offered to sell and built a large concentrated urban area in the south, Vinhomes Central Park, followed by VIN BASON. Next is the aggressive sales campaign of more than 50K apartments from these 2 projects of a series of VIN dealers’ floors from the north to the new floors in Ho Chi Minh City, creating a driving force for the owners. other investors follow the Metro infrastructure axis or Mai Chi Tho axis officially created a fever from Q2 to Q9 from the end of 2016 to 2018. In the north of the two megacities also built by VIN at a rapid pace from 2011, year 2013 began to deliver houses as Times City and Vinhomes Long Bien Hanoi.

And then it can be said that the major cause for this land fever is to announce plans and rumors such as the plan to build Cat Lai Bridge connecting Nhon Trach – Dong Nai to live again, ring road 3, closed the belt. 2 etc. News Tuan Chau Group has just worked, proposed to the city projects in Cu Chi (avenue along the river) that has made land there next week every day fever. Rumors about to have Can Gio Bridge (plan of Trung Nam Group), rumors of Binh Chanh, Nha Be, Hoc Mon going to the district (speculation group to spread rumors) has made housing prices doubled, five times after several month. And many other rumors that the investor through the press made (in fact only the proposals to work like the recent Binh Ba event) made real estate in all districts of Ho Chi Minh City rise. , different from the 2006 cycle, the concentration is mainly in the south (Q7, Binh Chanh) and Q2 is mainly.

Why are rumors today affecting real estate waves !? Because at this time, smartphones and social networks developed, the information provision is no longer exclusive to the press agencies as in 2006. Information is easily accessible on smarphone (everyone has, other 10 years ago, most phones were “brick”. And some investors, land speculators (pumping group) know how to promote this tool plus the organization of hand-to-hand groups, piles to raise prices, along with thousands of “amator reporters” are lips. gender, sellers, field buyers, touch the deer, spread the news to make crowds, naive about stranded real estate.

In the 2007 cycle, money from securities transferred to real estate began and there was a clear wave of southern investors from the northern real estate market. And this time in 2016, more than that, the money accumulated in the masses after 10 years of attracting foreign investment to develop abundant economy, plus the psychological reassuring recovery in the stock market then spread to real estate, and the huge real cash flow of up to tens of billions of dollars poured into the infrastructure (one of the basic conditions to stimulate the price of land to go up) has met the resources to have a third wave of real estate, especially in the segment. the ground.

Besides, the participation of foreign FDI inflows has increased as analyzed above, together with the influx of foreign capital to Vietnam to work and settle more and more. This makes land prices in many areas in Ho Chi Minh City constantly forming the price level 10-15 years ahead of development of adequate utility infrastructure (called virtual price). Investors are constantly surrendering, mass media, huge numbers of hands and piles of money after a few months of other people, make the masses excited about losing their senses when rushing to land fever and pushing prices. keep rising.

In addition, in this land fever period of Ho Chi Minh City this time, there is also a national resonance of soil fever especially in coastal coastal cities such as Quang Ninh, Thanh Hoa, Da Nang, Quang Nam (Hoi An), Khanh Hoa. (Nha Trang), Quy Nhon, Phan Thiet, Vung Tau etc. It was the birth of a child born out of wedlock Codotel has not been recognized birth, stretching out the coastal provinces and cities – the result of hasty love affair between policy makers and businesses to realize the aspiration to turn Vietnam into a tourist power. In 2016 and 2017, visitors to Vietnam increased by 26%, 29% / year, respectively, 5-6 times higher than the average in Southeast Asia. By 2018, an average of 1.5 million visitors / month makes the tourism real estate market rock like a full-fledged Tango, profits committed to heart-pounding from investors in sparkling fanciful sales.

Along with it are semi-ground subdivision projects accompanied with proposals to build airports and marine economic zones. And especially, the plan to discuss the construction of 3 special zones in 2016 made land in Van Don, Bac Van Phong, Phu Quoc to the end of 2017. Da Nang, Nha Trang reached the peak in mid-2018 and by the end of 2018, deflated.

The news of stopping the special zone from April 2018 was the first cold water pouring into the irrational excitement of landlords in a fever, plus the lingering frustration of the late 2018. Buying news is that profits from real estate start to decline. Next were the 3 airports of Long Thanh, Phan Thiet, Ho Tram and many other paper buildings which were not found to be deployed, causing a large number of disappointments and making land prices in the largest increase in Q9 go flat.

in 2019. In fact, when the land fever passes, it will decrease from the outside province to the SG, starting from the outside to the inside, from the ground and then to the townhouse, from the townhouse to the apartment, from the inside. alleys, then fronts etc. The timing of fluctuations in provinces is different in each locality and segment. Only very few apartment products are still on the rise in 2019.

It should be said that 2019 is a flat price, although the peak continues to set at a high level in the vast majority of apartment projects (known as the “price haggling phenomenon”) everywhere especially floating. The most famous is Vinhomes Grand Park, which set a high price level, but the transactions in the people and the end customers are few (the basis for other investors to continue setting the ground to push up the price).

When the market showed signs of cooling down, poor absorption due to the continuous investment in the previous period, the government tightened the plot, paper projects and the feasibility of the plans. ambitious infrastructure cannot be on time, secondary investors under financial pressure have started to reduce selling prices, rumors have been dismissed, inventories of real estate companies increased rapidly, pressure to mobilize. A large amount of capital mobilized through the bonds of real estate businesses has increased, and fraudulent investors have been detected, etc., it is also time that the market has passed the peak and cooled down.

By early 2020, without an appointment to meet, NcoV epidemic from Wuhan – China complicated changes worldwide has led the world into a global economic recession, and pushed the already built up Vietnamese economy. Financial diseases – Real estate (which is evident after a period of hot growth in 3 years 2016, 2017, 2017) faced Vietnam’s black swan. Details will be analyzed in lesson 4: Evolution of the black swan, post-NcoV prediction.

This 2016 real estate wave has made many names of investors and cannot remember or mention all the names as in the 2006 cycle. Especially with the participation of foreign investors, CapitalLand, Mapletree, Keppel Land, Lotte, Kusto Home etc. much more than the previous cycle in apartment projects, proving that the real estate market in this period has become more fertile, the number of foreigners who have settled in and bought real estate in Vietnam has increased.

The main point of the tail of this cycle is the appearance of countless self-proclaimed developers on paper such as ALIBABA, making the real estate market in this wave gray, the real estate business disguise to take place much, plus with many investors in the middle of the road falling off, losing liquidity, violating the law on land use auction, project suspension, overtaking, canceling commitments, etc. leading to the loss of confidence in the real estate market at the end of the cycle.

And at the end of this cycle the issue of‼ ️ GERMANY Real Estate Business ️ lên has been posed as the hottest and aching problem to be answered.
The developers will have to find out how to solve the problem, develop real estate products more human, then they can develop in the next stage. Because this period has accumulated so much frustration, confidence has been impaired.

It can be said that this land fever in Ho Chi Minh City has made the price of land and apartments in Ho Chi Minh City more than half the HN, even nearly double the equivalent position in Hanoi. Why!?. There are 4 main reasons as follows:
(1) Ho Chi Minh City is still a major international destination, and of Hanoi investors to the South (less opposite direction).
(2) The real estate sub-lease market in Ho Chi Minh City is more developed than in Hanoi. The large amount of remittances and popular consumer culture in the south have made the consumer economy more developed in the south, making real estate rental activities more profitable in Hanoi.
(3) The merger of Ha Tay province, a part of Hoa Binh province, Vinh Phuc province into Hanoi has created a potential for real estate development for Hanoi (especially in the West, Northwestern HN) about 20-30 years to fill up. . Therefore, HN has a surplus of supply, in contrast to HCMC, a small supply because of legal restrictions to develop new projects.
(4) In addition, in this cycle, Hanoi investors are not only interested in real estate investment only in Hanoi, but they are also interested in outside of 3 special zones, Ho Chi Minh City and provinces nationwide. Small was interested in foreign real estate investments such as the US, Australia, Canada etc.

Therefore, in this land fever, Hanoi is not reminded much because of the large supply, the townhouse segment in the alley has even stood still (almost no increase) from the previous cycle. Due to the tendency of young families to prefer using apartments instead of living at home in deep alleys, many inconveniences travel by car – this type of vehicle has become very popular. In Hanoi, only the price of houses and street houses has been raised, especially in fast growing and new districts such as North, South Tu Liem, Cau Giay and Tay Ho, where many foreigners and local land fever are concentrated. when information – rumors spread to district 5 of Hanoi: Hoai Duc, Dan Phuong, Thanh Tri, Dong Anh, Gia Lam. Especially in Gia Lam where Vingroup built Vinhomes Ocean Park model like Vinhomes Grand Park in District 9 – Ho Chi Minh City, real estate prices around the project increased 3 to 5 times.

The end of the previous cycle (Landmark 2006) is the event from the peak of the first down, then landing of Hoang Anh Gia Lai (HAGL) at this cycle. At the peak of the election Germany had once owned a specialist c

At first in Vietnam alone, with a friendly, kind image in football. But then HAGL went down when using financial leverage (borrowing) to invest too much in agricultural real estate, the area of ​​rubber trees and forestry products of HAGL in areas of 3 countries Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia came up. tens of thousands of hectares of national security influence.

Rubber prices dropped in 2010-2013, due to the decline in world oil prices and the sudden increase in the planted area of ​​Vietnamese rubber trees in previous years. The conversion of palm, banana, cow farming etc. having no luck, the management of geographic agricultural enterprises spreads, product prices are low, cumbersome apparatuses suffer many losses, not to mention investment in aquaculture often suffers from “household harvesting” of workers. Due to the indigenous situation, HAGL faced difficulties in ceding the last real estate projects in Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang to Quoc Cuong GL in 2016. Merging the complex in Myamar into Dai Quang Minh – THACO in 2018. Most of the remaining agricultural segment in Thadi (2019 also of THACO) is a happy ending, so that it can continue to aspire to improve Vietnam’s agricultural value in general and agricultural real estate in particular of Doan Nguyen businessman. Virtue.

Another name, less flamboyant in this cycle, but there have been real estate projects of 6-star aristocratic resort and resort of BIM GROUP of businessman Hoang Quoc Viet. People returning from Poland, doing hotel business in Ha Long, aquaculture in Kien Giang, opening AIR Mekong airline probably few remember. The famous luxury resort projects of BIM are InterContinental Ha Long and Phu Quoc (2016).

The end of this cycle in 2019 is: Sacred Group SunShine Group and the media name mentioned by entrepreneur Do Quang Hien came up from Chinese motorcycle production in Hung Yen, T&T Group, SHB – exclusive unit of Codotel COCOBAY Da Nang project. And SHB is also a companion of Bitexco – a real estate brand with a quiet, slow and unobtrusive tradition that is building a new icon in the diamond quadrant of Ben Thanh, the old center of Saigon – Court. Spirit of Saigon house (Saigon Glory). Works with 2 55-storey towers, FF symbols such as Financial Force, amphibian or two pieces of an SG heart depending on the imagination of the viewer, in Q1 before Thu Thiem will be replaced as the center. Ho Chi Minh City finance after about 20 years.

Quietly go through the difficult years ahead. Is Bitexco once again like a swallow flying through the winter, the real estate frost to signal the coming of a new spring at the time of completion of the project like the two real estate waves have passed …!? Let’s wait and see.

You have seen the names of big businessmen through the 3 waves of real estate, it is difficult to distinguish who 1 and 2 people. They are all worthy heroes because they dare to face risks and challenges when accompanying Phat developing the country for the past 30 years, racing against the perfection of institutions and laws and demonstrating achievements that ordinary people cannot achieve. When the country is developing and perfecting laws, where anyone who goes first is not at fault, those who are slow to adapt will be at fault, but in general, they all contribute to building a new face image for country.

If the cash flow of people from CK creates huge resources for corporations, and the real estate creates a profit stream for most of the country’s leading economic groups. And if that money continues to be reinvested in the domestic economy, our country develops, and if that money flows outward, we lose. And if the owners of corporations and banks have a national spirit to support the country in each crisis, use their responsibilities, do not bleed, the people will remember and continue to support them to endure. .

At this point, you probably partly understand why VIN has risen strongly from the previous cycle to this cycle!?. VIN inaugurated Land Mark 81 and the IPO of VIN stocks has never been greater in 2018 as a peak milestone in the development career. Because VIN always goes fast on the progress of construction, overcome legal barriers, increases maximum liquidity, targets the most middle and upper class people, consolidates the potential of leading people to fix them. gameplay, the main driver of the real estate market. And to continue to be the leader, VIN must overcome the biggest challenge ever in this Black Swan period after investing outside the industry (surpassing its core strength of real estate) with the first investments. Its great efficiency will answer in a few years.

The source of waves swept across the East Sea …
Covered by waves, then heroes …
Looking back at his lover …
Okay – lost – lost – suddenly turned into nowhere …

This phase Real Estate fever 2016-2019, freezing from 2020->
Features of soil fever in this period can be summed up briefly: NUMBER OF NATIONALS, widespread across provinces and cities (except remote areas with inconvenient traffic), most notably Ho Chi Minh City, coastal provinces coastal and highland provinces associated with tourism potential. The centers of big provinces and districts are planned to have rich houses in the locality, shopping centers, shops, lots for sale.


Source: MR. DONG DC