Since the Covid-19 pandemic happened, a large amount of money in the economy has been flowing into the stock market and real estate. At the same time, banks are still very attractive to deposits despite low interest rates, capital mobilization growth is higher than credit growth.

One of the most noteworthy trends in Vietnam since the Covid-19 pandemic has been a strong inflow of money into the stock and real estate markets. The number of F0 investors on the stock market increased ever since.
The average transaction value on the stock market in 2020 will reach over 7,420 billion VND / session, an increase of 59.3% compared to the average of 2019. It is estimated that in the first 3 months of 2021, the average transaction value on the market Stock market reached VND 18,907 billion / session, up 155% from the previous year average.

Many people believe that there has been a significant shift of cash flow, from the channel of bank savings to the securities channel due to the record low deposit interest rates. However, in reality, deposits of banks are still increasing steadily without being affected too much. Capital mobilization of the credit institution system in 2020 will reach nearly 13%, equivalent to the increase in 2019 and also higher than credit growth. According to the latest statistics, the capital mobilization growth of credit institutions in the first quarter of 2021 was similar to the same period last year.

Thus, a large amount of money in the economy has been flowing into both banking and securities channels. So where does this money come from?
At the Forum “Capital Market Development – Opportunities in a New Era”, PhD. Nguyen Tu Anh, director of the General Department of the Central Economic Commission, said that in Vietnam, it is necessary to pay attention to the informal economic sector.

“Over the past few years, we have seen huge cash flows going out into the market and not back into the banking system. It creates cash flows that run in the informal sector like businesses borrowing each other, people. People borrow from each other … By the time of Covid-19, the informal sector was almost stagnant, reduced.As a result, the above cash flow returned to the official investment channels, firstly to the bank, the second to the stock market “, said Mr. Nguyen Tu Anh.
In fact, during the Covid-19 period, the growth rate of banks’ capital mobilization was still very fast, faster than credit growth, the expert said. On the stock market, cash flow also poured in, investors of F0 increased a lot. “So where does the F0 get money while the economy has grown slowly? This is the cash flow from the informal sector back to official”, he said again.

Mr. Tu Anh also noted that if the economy returns to a normal state, when accessing capital from banks is still difficult, it is likely that the cash flow will return to the informal sector.
At the forum, experts also assessed that Vietnam’s capital market is rapidly developing and has plenty of room.
Banking and finance specialist – PhD. According to Can Van Luc, there are nearly 3% of the population participating in the stock market, so there is plenty of room for the development of the stock market. However, there are many challenges on the road to capital market development. It is the prospect of economic recovery with many potential risks, the market size is still quite small compared to other countries in the region, lack of stability, low product quality, transparency and professionalism are not high. , the sanction of handling violations is not enough to deter. Infrastructure constraints lead to congestion, affecting investor confidence. The risk of a bubble in the market due to a large amount of capital from F0 investors who do not have much knowledge about the stock market poured into the market.

Meanwhile, Mr. Nguyen Tu Anh commented, investors in the stock market have matured a lot. If in the past, some negative information could make the market wobble, now investors seem to be “cold”.
However, in order for the capital market to develop positively in the coming time, many solutions still need to be deployed synchronously. With the stock market, it is necessary to focus on solutions to the main goal of stabilizing investors ‘psychology, closely monitoring changes in foreign investors’ capital flow to have timely solutions and policies, fit. At the same time, the State Securities Commission should have strong solutions to promote listed companies on the stock exchange to diversify supply sources and industries in the market, and at the same time reduce pressure to raise capital via channels. Bank.

“Along with that is to strengthen inspection and supervision of securities trading activities; mergers, acquisitions and sales of enterprises; limit the situation of investors manipulating the market and acquiring Vietnamese enterprises. closely, warn and take measures to minimize risks in corporate bond issuance and investment “, Mr. Tu Anh stated.

Thu Thuy
According to Business and Marketing